Forecasts are mixed as to whether Ian will charge at the Florida Peninsula or target the Panhandle.
Tropical Storm Ian formed Friday night over the central Caribbean north of Venezuela and is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night. Meteorologists predict Ian will rapidly intensify as it passes through the northwest Caribbean, potentially reaching major hurricane status as it collides with Cuba on Monday night en route to the Florida Gulf Coast on Wednesday.Uncertainty remains over exactly where in Florida Ian will strike, with a range of possibilities still on the table.
On Friday, the surface circulation of Ian was visibly exposed east of the system’s clustering of thunderstorms, a sign of disruptive wind shear, or a change in wind speed and/or direction with height, knocking the entire system off-kilter. Since then, shear has begun to relax acutely, meaning thunderstorms aren’t blown as far downwind of the surface vortex.
The European model is more optimistic on this northeastward tug toward Florida. In this model, Ian does link up with the trough, curving eastward more quickly and sweeping ashore toward the midcoast of Florida as a significant hurricane. The National Hurricane Center estimates that landfall could occur with a storm near or at Category 3 strength and winds gusting well over 100 mph.
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