Confirming a tornado in Canada used to be a bit like the proverbial tree falling in the forest: if no one was there to see it, it never officially happened.
But a group of Canadian weather scientists, engineers and university students is out to change all that with modern technology and dogged forensic work — plus no small measure of that aforementioned toppled timber.
The project helped confirm a record 117 tornadoes in 2021 and another 117 in 2022 — numbers that are more a function of increased scrutiny than higher frequency. But Kopp and company are well aware that climate change is changing the equation. "The community that experienced this tornado got very lucky, I think," he said — EF4 and EF5 events, the most violent, destructive categories on the Enhanced Fujita scale, typically include fatalities.
Most of them strike in the corridor of the Great Plains known as Tornado Alley, a loosely defined region that stretches north from Texas through Oklahoma and Kansas, all the way to the Dakotas. That included an EF4 twister March 24 in Mississippi that measured more than a kilometre wide and claimed 21 lives during more than an hour on the ground, unleashing peak winds of 273 km/h.
That's what the project did in 2022, using its confirmed tornado data from 2019 through 2021 to determine if and when Environment and Climate Change Canada was able to issue timely public warnings for those events.
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