Free picks for MLB prop bets on August 18, swinging at today's MLB props and giving our best MLB prop picks, predictions, and baseball bets.
continue to befuddle me. The O’s lineup and bullpen are both awesome and have ridden those to not only lead the American League East at this point but also the best overall record in the AL.
They've done so having starting pitching that, even with the addition of Jack Flaherty, is still underwhelming. Case in point, tonight’s starter Kyle Gibson. The veteran right-hander takes the mound vs. the lowlyGibson has a fairly average expected ERA sitting at 4.50. But his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage allowed rank in the 21st and 31st percentiles respectively. On top of that, he isn’t striking out a ton of guys and that’s what I want to focus on today.
Gibson is striking out 19.6% of the batters he has faced this season, which ranks in the 23rd percentile. That works out to 7.49 strikeouts per nine innings. Now, obviously, the A’s are bad. Like, historically bad. But they actually haven’t been the worst offense in baseball this month. Oakland ranks 20th in wRC+ since the start of August and more importantly for us, the A’s have the 14th lowest strikeout rate at 22%.
Gibson’s strikeout prop is set at 5.5 for this matchup for no other reason than he’s facing the A’s. He’s fallen below this number in 19 of his 25 starts this season, which includes a matchup against Oakland back in May. Gibson pitched 6 1/3 innings in that game but only struck out four. At plus money, the Under is worth a wager tonight.
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