China dug itself into a demographic hole largely through its one\u002Dchild policy imposed between 1980 and 2015
“You cannot change the declining trend,” said Xiujian Peng, senior research fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies at Victoria University in Australia. “But without any fertility encouragement policy then fertility will decline even further.”
Giving incentives to have a first child could encourage couples to have at least one child, she said. Many provinces currently only subsidize second and third children. Demographers warn China will get old before it gets rich, as its workforce shrinks and indebted local governments spend more on their elderly population.
Arjan Gjonca, associate professor at London School of Economics, said financial incentives were not enough and policies focusing on gender equality and better employment rights for women would be likely to have more impact.
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