Even though California enacted sweeping legislation nearly a decade ago to curb excessive agricultural pumping of groundwater, new research predicts that thousands of drinking water wells could run dry in the Central Valley by the time the law's restrictions take full effect in 2040.
plans throughout the Central Valley and examined a key metric called minimum thresholds—the aquifer levels groundwater agencies have set as lower limits while they implement the groundwater act's rules and restrictions over the next 16 years.
Few Central Valley plans currently include an evaluation of how many wells could fail, authors said. They recommend that state officials require local agencies to analyze vulnerable wells, and study how stricter thresholds could reduce the number of failures. The law broadly defines sustainability as managing and using groundwater"in a manner that can be maintained during the planning and implementation horizon without causing undesirable results," one of which is chronic lowering of groundwater levels.state regulatorsRich Pauloo, a hydrogeologist and data scientist who co-wrote the study, questioned how business-as-usual groundwater extraction could continue until 2040 and then"just magically stop.
Paul Gosselin, deputy director of the state Department of Water Resources' sustainable groundwater management office, said the study provides valuable analysis. That action triggered intervention by the State Water Resources Control Board, which plans to hold hearings on whether to put local agencies on probationary status. State regulators could eventually step in to require stronger measures.
The researchers said that nearly 40% of the wells in disadvantaged communities are at risk, and that some of these communities lack nearby monitoring wells that track aquifer levels. "Either protect the wells or create tangible alternatives. That also may take years to implement. So they need to come up with a plan," Méndez-Barrientos said."Where is the plan for a just transition that is going to make sure that these communities have drinking water?"
"I think there is a broader question about what we're calling sustainable," Bostic said."Should the definition of sustainability be the status quo?"
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