OPEC+ announced an output cut of 1.16 million barrels per day, and some are forecasting $100 per barrel. That could hurt some countries more than others.
"South Korea and Italy are more than 75% dependent on imported oil," Molchanov pointed out.However, he added that China's exposure was slightly less due to domestic oil production, while Europe as a whole relies mainly on nuclear, coal and natural gas rather than fossil fuel in their primary energy mix.Some emerging markets that "do not have the foreign currency capability to support these fuel imports," will be negatively impacted by the $100 price tag, said Molchanov.
Sri Lanka, which does not produce oil domestically and is 100% dependent on imports, is also very susceptible to a harder hit, he said. Cooling towers emiting vapor at the Leuna refinery and chemical industrial complex, home to refineries and plants operated by TotalEnergies in Leuna, Germany, on Tuesday, June 7, 2022."Countries with the least foreign currencies and who are importers will hurt the most because oil is priced in the U.S. dollar," said founder of Energy Aspects, Amrita Sen, who added that the cost of imports will rise even further if the greenback appreciates.
"In the long run, prices could be more kind of in line with where we are today" — in the region of about $80 to $90 or so, he said. "Once crude hits $100 a barrel and stays there for a bit, that incentivizes producers to really ramp up output again," said Gloystein.
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