Historically, this signal has indicated pressure ahead.
An equal-weighted version of the S & P 500 has hit thresholds that have historically signaled trouble ahead, according to
. Known as the SPW, the equal-weight S & P 500 measures performance by tracking all the stocks in the broad index at equal exposure. In the cap-weighed version, known in short as the SPX , more exposure is given to stocks with larger market caps. found that the SPW has traded more than 2% below its 200-day moving average, a key technical level watched by traders to gauge an asset's longer-term momentum. Meanwhile, the SPX is still trading above its 200-day average but has lost 2% over the past two months.
. Those past occurrences: August 1998, January 2000, September 2007, October 2018 and March 2020. "These stand out as ominous dates with all of them seeing meaningful downside in the weeks/ months ahead," he said in a note to clients Sunday. That divergence in performance comes amid concerns among market participants that a group of megacap stocks known as the "Magnificent 7" have made the market appear stronger than it is. The cap-weighed SPX has climbed about 12.
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