Soon, Trump is going to have to chose between pursuing his foreign policy goals and ensuring low oil prices for Americans. He can't have it both ways in today's oil market.
The Trump Administration continues to sing a familiar refrain when asked about restricting Venezuela and Iran's oil exports - that there's room in the oil market to push its oil sanctions more aggressively. Specifically, an administration official, referenced athat predicted supply would outpace demand by 400,000 barrels per day in 2019. The problem is that between Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Venezuela, those 400,000 barrels per day will be off the market by April.
The President may try to pressure Saudi Arabia to increase its production—a tactic that worked last year. But after oil prices took a nose dive when Trump suddenly granted exemptions for imports of Iranian oil by China, India and others, the President is unlikely to find a sympathetic ear in Saudi Arabia this time. U.S. oil production is strong, but the type of oil produced in the Permian can't be used as a substitute for Venezuela's and Iran's heavy oil exports.
Very soon, the Trump administration is going to have to choose between pursuing its foreign policy goals in Iran and Venezuela and ensuring low oil and gasoline prices for American consumers and manufacturers. The administration can't have it both ways in today's oil market.
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