Science, Space and Technology News 2023
“Our findings don’t really match the narrative that’s repeated by the public about climate-induced migration,” says Venla Niva, a postdoctoral researcher at Aalto University who was lead author of the study. “When you look at the different factors together, the analysis shows that human development factors are more important drivers than climate.
By starting with sub-national death and birth ratios and scaling them down to 10 km resolution, the researchers produced a net-migration dataset of unprecedented resolution. This makes it possible to address questions that can’t be answered using national aggregates. “Climate factors don’t follow administrative boundaries, so data like this is needed if you want to study these patterns,” explains Niva.
By the same token, areas with a high HDI experienced positive net migration regardless of their climate condition. For example, regions in the Arabian Peninsula, North America, Australia, and the North Mediterranean are net receivers despite their aridity. Unexpected patterns also showed up in urban-rural migration. “There’s a very common belief that urban areas are pulling the people from the rural areas, but that wasn’t the case everywhere. For example, there are a lot of places for example in Europe where the opposite is true,” says Kummu. Migration from cities to rural areas was also evident in parts of Indonesia, Congo, Venezuela, and Pakistan, and when the analysis is done of the level of communities, the picture becomes even more complex.
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