The next U.S. recession is looking more likely as Trump weaponizes trade and the dollar
U.S President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrive in Biarritz, France, on August 24, 2019, for the G-7 summit. A day earlier,
By weaponizing both trade and currency, President Trump has infected the global economy with deep uncertainty. In imposing sanctions and tariffs—as well as banning American firms from doing business with a growing list of foreign companies on grounds of national security—Trump has enfeebled world trade, turning it into a brake on global growth.
Trump’s actions on trade and currency are now imposing a discernible drag on global economic growth. Economic momentum is slowing everywhere, and many countries, the U.S. included, are now less resilient to economic shocks than just a few years ago. Growth in world trade has slowed to practically zero this year. While the slowdown in world trade in 2017/18 could be traced to weaker demand in China and the Eurozone; ominously, the slowdown this year is due to slower growth in the U.S.
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