New Abacus Data Alberta poll: The NDP takes the lead in Alberta
With just over two weeks to go in the Alberta provincial election, a new survey of 885 eligible voters in Alberta by Abacus Data finds the Alberta NDP jumping ahead of the UCP after several months of near or complete deadlock in vote intentions between the two parties.
When we remove the undecided, the ballot among all decided voters is 51% for the NDP and 41% for the NDP – a 5-point gain for the NDP and a 5-point loss for the UCP since the start of the campaign.NDP gains among Reluctant UCPers. The NDP has made gains across demographic groups but now has a 16-point lead among those under 45, is tied with the UCP among those over 45, leads by 12 among women, and is slightly ahead among men.
One thing to note, both loyal UCPers and loyal NDPers are highly engaged and likely to vote. Reluctant UCPers and those who voted for smaller parties in 2019 are somewhat less likely to vote.Those with a negative impression of UCP leader Danielle Smith have increased over the past few weeks. Today 31% have a positive impression of her while 49% have a negative impression for a net score of -18. Negative impressions of Smith are up 6 points since the start of the campaign.
The survey also finds that more Albertans say their impression of Danielle Smith has gotten worse than those who say that of Rachel Notley. 40% say their impression of Danielle Smith has gotten worse while 25% say the same thing about Rachel Notley. At this point in the campaign, neither leader has much positive momentum, but it’s clear Smith has more negative momentum than Notley.
And while they don’t love Rachel Notley – the group has more positive than negative views of her . Most can accept her as premier if it means Danielle Smith is denied re-election., I’ve said they will decide the election. And if an election was held today, their shift towards the NDP puts Notley in a good position to win the province again.
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