Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic detailed the effects of rising rates on the domestic housing market,
“We argued after the latest Bank of Canada pause that it wasn’t going to have the same positive impact on the housing market as the one we saw in the spring. That thesis is getting stronger now with the selloff in the bond market. Five-year GoC yields pushed above 4.4 per cent, or the highest since 2007—in fact, the yield is now at the high end of that period’s range … Beyond that we’re encroaching on late-90s/early-2000s territory.
“With the prospect of global growth falling to 1.7 per cent in 2024 and global trade continuing to stagnate, commodity demand growth looks likely to fall significantly year-on-year. Economic growth and trade are the two main drivers of commodities demand … All three of the major world economies – the U.S.
“The S&P/TSX Composite fell 751 points in September. Year-to-date the benchmark is positive by 156 points. Information Technology and Materials contributed the most to the decline during the month – dropping 162 and 152 points respectively. Shopify continues to be the largest individual point contributor year-to-date to the index - adding 223 points.
The other big contributors year to date were Canadian Natural Resources , Constellation Software , Cameco and Alimentation Couche-Tard . The detractors were Nutrien , Canadian Natural Railways , Royal Bank of Canada and Barrick Gold .
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