The July jobs report triggered the 'Sahm rule,' which is closely monitored by Wall Street, because it has been a historically accurate recession indicator.
The weaker-than-expected July jobs report triggered a reliable recession indicator that Wall Street closely monitors, reigniting concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and sparking a steep market sell-off. Employers hired 114,000 workers last month, the U.S. Department of Labor said in its monthly payroll report released Friday, missing the 175,000 gain forecast by LSEG economists. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021.
Hiring may also have been disrupted last month by Hurricane Beryl, which slammed into the Texas coast in early July. The jobs data adds to mounting evidence that the economy is weakening in the face of ongoing inflation and high interest rates, and raises questions about whether the Fed can successfully engineer a soft landing. Policymakers voted to hold interest rates steady at a more than two-decade high on Wednesday, but they opened the door to a rate cut at their next meeting in September.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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