The US take over of an oil field in northern Syria has thrown a wrench into the Syrian regime and Russia's plans - and the YPG will pay for it Opinion | OmerOzkizilcik
When the US pulled out of Syria without adequately coordinating with its NATO ally Turkey, people in the Kremlin may have been filled with joy and euphoria. The short-sighed policies of CENTCOM officials in Syria have not only caused a major dispute within NATO but also resulted in the pullout of the Americans from the country.
When Trump announced the US withdrawal from Syria at the end of 2018, I had a long conversation with a Russian source who argued that Moscow would use the Turkish pressure to extract substantial compromises from the YPG and will impose the regime over all of the east of the Euphrates. I told him that no one knows the PKK better than Turkey, ergo, the Russian strategy would not work.
On October 30, the Assad regime officially called upon YPG fighters to join regime forces saying that fighters could be employed within the army structures andforces could become police units. The YPG declared that they reject such calls and demand a political settlement - a wake-up call for many in Moscow.
In addition to the YPG’s ideological approach, the dynamics in Syria have also shifted against Moscow. The Turkish president, through a complicated negotiation process—supported by military power on the ground—has managed to secure a strong position for Turkish demands in which Russia can’t afford a confrontation with Turkey and is obliged to find a middle way. This middle way was signed in the Sochi summit, but it gave Turkey a superior position to enforce something on Russia when needed.
However, the biggest frustration that Moscow and the Assad regime face is located elsewhere: the Al-Omar oilfield. The decision by the Trump administration to secure oil in the Arab-populated and the regime-unfriendly region has been a major strategic decision within the Syrian context. It denies the regime valuable resources it needs to finance its military campaign and to make its deployment in northeast Syria sustainable.
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