Utah homebuilder Ivory Homes still has a pipeline of several hundred houses under construction, but CEO Clark Ivory isn't pulling permits for any more at this point, and in a year of retrenchment for the single-family home industry, he has laid off just under 10% of his workers.
But don't look for that to be reflected in overall U.S. construction employment or spending data, a canary that is very much still breathing inside what would usually be the toxifying air of rising U.S. interest rates.
Is the economy really standing firm against the Fed's aggressive rate moves? Rate increases have averaged more than half a percentage point at each of the eight Fed meetings since March of 2022, and pushed the benchmark overnight interest rate from the near-zero level to the current 4.50%-4.75% range.As the tightening orchestrated by Fed Chair Jerome Powell hits the one-year mark, the extent of the influence depends on where you look.
Since the 1970s, declines in housing starts have been followed by drops in construction employment, and been associated with the onset of recession.Employment: The job market overall in fact has shown only initial signs of slowing - and the Fed has put a lot of weight on tempered job and wage growth as a necessary condition for inflation to fall.
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