Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner cut his price target on Tesla stock to $285 from $300. The EV maker may face limited volume growth next year, he writes.
Analysts are focused on Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries, and lowering estimates. That’s unnerving investors. Both groups, however, might want to look a little farther down the road, because the outlook for 2024 may be deteriorating.
“Tesla’s 3Q 2023 deliveries and production could miss Street expectations, but more important, we see meaningful downside risk to 2024 consensus due to limited volume growth next year,” wrote Rosner. Tesla delivery estimates get trimmed coming to the end of most quarters, but these third-quarter cuts are larger than in the past. Planned plant downtime to change plant tooling for an upgraded Model 3 is the main reason Rosner and other analysts cite for all of the recent cuts.
Falling estimates, weak production growth, and weak Cybertruck deliveries in 2024 aren’t what investors want to hear. Tesla’s goal is to grow volumes at 50% a year on average for the coming few years. Next year’s growth would be less than 20% at 2.1 million units. Deliveries are expected to be about 1.8 million units for 2023, up roughly 40% compared with 2022.
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