Michael Barone in dailyherald: Joe Biden may come to regret moving the Democratic primary schedule
For a president who proclaimed proudly in his annual speech that his policies have made the state of the union good, Joe Biden betrayed a certain insecurity when, just two days before, he caused the Democratic National Committee to change its presidential primary schedule for 2024.
Now, Democrats say that South Carolina gets to vote first on Feb. 3. In that state last time, Biden won 49% of the vote in a 12-candidate field after an endorsement from the state's lone black Democratic congressman, Rep. James Clyburn. Biden won 41 of 47 primaries and caucuses held after South Carolina.
by signing up you agree to our terms of service The Biden reschedule gives primacy to black voters. In 2020, black people made up only 3% of Iowa Democratic caucusgoers and 3% of New Hampshire Democratic voters. But they were 56% of Democratic voters in South Carolina, and Biden won 61% of their votes. Georgia and Michigan's 2020 Democratic primary electorates were 28% and 19% black, respectively.
One potential candidate hurt by the Biden reshuffle is his 2020 rival and current Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who leads Biden in at least one New Hampshire poll. In 2020,"Mayor Pete," as he was then called, ran close to Bernie Sanders in Iowa and then lost to Sanders by 26% to 24% in New Hampshire. Exit polls showed him leading Sanders among white college grads in both states.
It's also not clear that the DNC's Biden schedule will actually happen. In the 1970s, the primary calendar was determined by Democrats because most states had Democratic legislatures. Today, however, most states don't.
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