How regulators respond to the 2nd largest bank collapse in U.S. history holds key to market reaction after investors opted to 'sell first, ask questions later.'
It’s all eyes on federal banking regulators as investors sift through the aftermath of last week’s market-rattling collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
“If a deal gets struck tonight that doesn’t haircut depositors, the market is going to rally strongly,” said Barry Knapp, managing partner and director of research at Ironsides Macroeconomics, in a phone interview Sunday afternoon. “In what is an already jittery market, the emotional response to a failed bank reawakens our collective muscle memory of the GFC,” Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial Wealth, told MarketWatch in an email, referring to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. “When the dust settles, we will likely find that SVB is not a ‘systematic’ issue.”
Muscle memory, meanwhile, was in effect at the end of last week. Banking stocks dropped sharply Thursday, led by shares of regional institutions, and extended their losses Friday. The selloff in bank stocks pulled down the broader market, leaving the S&P 500 SPX down 4.6%, nearly wiping out the large-cap benchmark’s early 2023 gains.
Analysts and economists largely dismissed the notion that SVB’s woes marked a systemic problem in the banking system.Instead, SVB appears to be a “a rather special case of poor balance-sheet management, holding massive amounts of long-duration bonds funded by short-term liabilities,” said Erik F. Nielsen, group chief economics adviser at UniCredit Bank, in a Sunday note.Implications for the Fed’s monetary policy path also loom large.
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