A lone polar bear, marooned on a shrinking slab of sea ice, has become a heart-wrenching poster child for the effects of climate change in the Arctic.
The newest model is yet another dire update. It's based on observational data of sea ice collected between 1979 and 2019. It clearly shows significant melting events throughout the year that are well beyond natural variability and far more pronounced in the summer months.
When researchers in Germany, South Korea, and Canada projected these patterns into the future, they found sea ice disappearing in the Arctic summers starting in the 2030s, and this was apparent no matter how many fossil fuels were burned. For a lower emissions scenario, the models predicted ice-free moments that were shorter and confined to the end of summer. In a high emissions scenario, on the other hand, the Arctic was estimated to be free of sea ice from August to September.
"These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future," researchers
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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