Spoiler alert: Could a third-party run help Trump win in 2020? by realchriswilson
Welcome to 2020 Vision, the Yahoo News column covering the presidential race with one key takeaway every weekday and a wrap-up each weekend. Reminder: There are 104 days until the Iowa caucuses and 378 days until the 2020 election.
Clinton also attacked Stein, saying, “She’s a Russian asset — I mean, totally. They know they can’t win without a third-party candidate. So I don’t know who it’s going to be, but I will guarantee you they will have a vigorous third-party challenge in the key states that they most needed.” Story continuesThird parties had a strong overall showing in the 2016 election. Stein, Libertarian Gary Johnson and independent candidate Evan McMullin combined for over 5 percent of the vote, compared to just 1.5 percent for the third-party candidates in 2012. That opened the door for Trump to win with just 46.1 percent of the popular vote.
Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate in 2000, received 97,000 votes in Florida, which went to Republican George W. Bush by a margin of just over 500, and gave him the election. Nader has sought to deflect the charge of being a spoiler in the race, and it’s unreasonable to assume that all of his votes would have gone to Democrat Al Gore instead, but a detailed statistical analysis supports the inference that without him on the ballot, the election would have turned out differently.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg considered a third-party run in 2016 over concerns that the race could come down to Trump against Bernie Sanders. Last week, CNBC reported that Bloomberg was considering entering the Democratic primary to head off a victory by Elizabeth Warren. Both Warren and Sanders have proposed wealth taxes that would affect billionaires like Bloomberg, with an estimated fortune of $51 billion.
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