Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
“We are downgrading the Canadian Consumer Staples sector to Underweight from Market Weight given the apparent peak in food inflation, moderating relative price performance trends, and the slowing earnings momentum exhibited over the last few months. In our 2023 Canadian Sector Positioning report we maintained our Canadian Consumer Staples sector at Market Weight despite downgrading US Consumer Staples to Underweight.
The largest companies in the consumer staples subindex are Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., Loblaw Companies Ltd., George Weston Ltd. and Metro Inc.Rockwell Automation Inc. is an interesting proxy for both the re-shoring and productivity trends. Bernstein analyst Brendan Luecke summarized what’s happening with profit growth at the company,
“Rockwell is in an odd spot. The short-cycle business is now positioned as a secular winner in a decelerating macro environment … Re-shoring feels very real. Coming into the quarter we were hoping for an entry point into Rockwell. We thought we’d finally see orders roll as demand pulled-forward conspired with falling PMIs. This didn’t really happen. ROK orders were guided down a by a bit more than PMI’s would suggest.
“Insolvencies: Something’s Happening Here ... And what it is, is pretty clear. The number of consumer and business insolvencies took a big step up in March, rising 28% from year-ago levels. In raw terms, this is basically back to the relatively high level seen before the pandemic. Recall, that in 2020, insolvencies took a huge step down, and stayed there for a couple years, amid heavy-duty government support, low borrowing costs, and some forbearance.
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