Some contrarians predict Trump's tariffs could trigger the sort of interest rates he can't stand
Key Points
Recent market consensus has suggested that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates, with Fed funds futures indicating a 76% chance the central bankby 25 basis points before September. As of Wednesday, futures had also priced in a one-in-three chance that the Fed will cut twice by the end of the year.
Central banks will generally raise rates when inflation is predicted to rise above their inflation target, and higher rates tend toward moderate economic growth. This increases the cost of borrowing and can therefore limit the growth in consumer spending.
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