The 90% economy is likely to be a more solitary and less fun sort of society—the sort of place where the office is open but the pub isn’t
to describe what will happen as lockdowns are eased across the world. Under strict lockdowns, economies tend to operate at about 60% capacity, analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests. But as they are eased, that figure rises to 90%. Many offices and factories reopen—but not all do, and people, scared of being infected, are likely to shun many social activities. Unemployment is structurally higher, and is particularly concentrated in occupations which rely on plenty of face-to-face contact.
But the idea of the 90% economy captures something qualitative too. The 90% economy will undoubtedly be characterised by relief, fellow feeling, and newly felt or expressed esteem for those who have worked to keep people safe. But the term depicts a more solitary and less fun sort of society—the sort of place where the office is open but the pub isn’t. A range of real-time data backs up this thesis.
As other countries ease restrictions, they can expect to emulate the Chinese experience. Some American states have started to lift lockdowns, but there is little sign of economies roaring back . That may happen only once reliable test-and-trace systems are introduced, or perhaps only when a vaccine or cure becomes widely available. The longer the 90% economy endures, the more permanent its effects will be.
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