Science, Space and Technology News 2023
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“The ETAS model approach was designed for the observations that we had in the 80s and 90s when we were trying to build reliable forecasts based on very few observations,” said Kelian Dascher-Cousineau, the lead author of the paper who recently completed his PhD at UC Santa Cruz. “It’s a very different landscape today.” Now, with more sensitive equipment and larger data storage capabilities, earthquake catalogs are much larger and more detailed.
The model’s flexibility could open up new possibilities for earthquake forecasting. With the ability to adapt to large amounts of new data, models that use deep learning could potentially incorporate information from multiple regions at once to make better forecasts about poorly studied areas. “We’re recording ground motion all the time,” said Brodsky. “So the next level is to actually use all of that information, not worry about whether we’re calling it an earthquake or not an earthquake but to use everything.”
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