Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia will create a “significant supply shortfall” and threaten a renewed surge in price volatility, the International Energy Agency warned.
Global oil markets face a deficit of 1.2 million barrels a day during the second half of 2023 following last week’s announcements by the OPEC+ leaders that they’ll extend cutbacks to the end of the year, the agency said. It’s smaller than projected last month, as a result of historical changes to demand estimates, but still poses risks for consumers.
The Saudis and other OPEC+ nations regularly say their intervention is aimed at balancing markets, but the group’s own data released on Tuesday point to an even bigger supply hole in the coming quarter of more than 3 million barrels a day — the largest in at least a decade. The OPEC+ coalition has given little explanation for its current strategy.
“The Saudi-Russian alliance is proving a formidable challenge for oil markets,” the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report on Wednesday. “The extension of output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia through year-end will lock in a substantial market deficit through the fourth quarter.”
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