S&P 500 primed to end year 27% higher as index eases back from record highs above 4800 By Frank_Macro SP500 Equities
subdued fashion in the 4770s on Friday. Trading conditions have been especially light, with European markets either shut or closing early and a great number of US market participants also on holiday for New Year’s celebrations. Despite trading roughly 0.75% lower versus Thursday’s record highs, the S&P 500 remains on course to close out the week about 1.0% higher, after power above resistance in the 4740 area on Monday.
Whilst Omicron does pose downside risks to economic activity in Q1 2022, with analysts highlighting store closures across the US and rampant flight cancellations, most suspect this will be economic activity delayed rather than permentantly lost. Analysts view the US economy as much better adapted to cope with future Covid-19 infection waves.
Looking ahead to 2022, focus is likely to shift away from the pandemic and back onto earnings and the Fed. The Q3 2021 earnings season helped power US equities at the time to fresh record levels and analyst expectations are high that Q4 performance should be strong as well.
That suggests that even in wake of its best annual performance since 1999, during which time the S&P 500 has rallied more than 27% on the year, thefor 2022 remains upbeat. For reference, the Nasdaq 100 index is also on course to clock a roughly 27% annual gain, while the Dow is up just shy of 19%. All the major US indices were powered higher in 2021 by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, as well as easing pandemic concerns amid mass vaccine rollouts.
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