S&P 500 fails to hold premarket gains, tumbles from 3860 resistance. Traders eagerly await quarterly earnings from Apple & Amazon. US PCE data on Friday could lead to heightened interest rate volatility.
Event risk carries on into Friday, which sees US PCE data cross the wires during the premarket session. PCE is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, and the data comes just days before the next FOMC policy decision on November 2nd. Despite persistent inflation, bets on how aggressive the Fed will ultimately be have been dialed back as other central banks have started to slow their own rate hike campaigns.
That being said, if ES does continue higher as it comes out of this important stretch, the 3902-3914 area remains key on the upside. This area of fib confluence is the 50% retracement of the decline from the August swing high of 4327.50. Obviously, negative data and a hawkish Fed may rock the boat and send us spiraling toward our recent lows.
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