Russia’s attack on Ukraine threatens to inflict severe economic damage for some countries and industries — damage that could mean hardships for millions. Russia is the world’s third-biggest producer of petroleum and is a major exporter of natural gas.
. The pipeline has now been frozen by sanctions imposed by Germany’s government.
Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter, agricultural analyst Alex Smith wrote last month in the journal Foreign Policy, and many of the countries that rely on its wheat “already face food insecurity from ongoing political instability or outright violence.” Yemen, for instance, imports 22% of its wheat consumption from Ukraine, Libya about 43%, Lebanon roughly half.
With inflation running hot, central banks may have less leeway — or inclination — to ride to the rescue with stimulus if the economy sputters in the face of the military conflict in Ukraine. In the face geopolitical worries, Michael Taylor, managing director at Moody’s Investors Service, warns that investors may flee to Treasurys and other super-safe investments, thereby driving up the relative credit costs for riskier businesses.
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