A four-day gap in shipments from Primorsk offset higher flows from the Pacific
-- Russia’s seaborne crude exports were curtailed by maintenance work at export terminals, though shipments look set for a rebound in the coming week.
Refinery maintenance should also boost crude exports for the next few weeks. Russia’s average daily oil-processing rates have dropped to the lowest since late May as seasonal downstream maintenance has entered its peak. Russia’s refineries are set to continue the works for the next several weeks, with the peak of offline capacities seen to last until mid-October.
Even if all of the cargoes on ships without an initial destination eventually end up in India, shipments to the country will still be about 450,000 barrels a day, or 21%, down from their peak in May. A market that consumed about 1.5 million barrels a day of short-haul seaborne crude, coming from export terminals in the Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic has been lost almost completely, to be replaced by long-haul destinations in Asia that are much more costly and time-consuming to serve.Exports to Turkey, Russia’s only remaining Mediterranean customer, rose for a third week, increasing to about 235,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Sept. 24, the highest since June.
The rate for October has been set at $3.26 a barrel, based on an average Urals price of $77.03 during the calculation period between Aug. 15 and Sept. 14. That was $11.60 a barrel below Brent over the same period. October’s duty rate sets a new high for the year.The following charts show the number of ships leaving each export terminal and the destinations of crude cargoes from the four export regions.
The total volume on ships loading Russian crude from the Baltic terminals dropped to a five-week low of 1.15 million barrels a day. Maintenance work at Primorsk reduced the number of tankers loading at the port last week to just four, down from a more normal level of at least nine. Shipments began again as the week ended, suggesting that a rebound is likely in the coming week.
Three tankers were drifting outside the port at the end of the week, with another two due to arrive before the end of the month.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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