'Moscow’s actions in Georgia’s South Ossetia, Moldova’s Transnistria, and parts of Eastern Ukraine inform concerns that Russia may also flood [Bosnia's] Republika Srpska with money, arms, and military advisors via Serbia' Opinion | GiorgioCafiero
Prior to the Ukraine conflict, Sarajevo officialdom was already worried about BiH’s survival as a sovereign state, yet such concerns have only deepened following February 24. Moscow’s actions in Georgia’s South Ossetia, Moldova’s Transnistria, and parts of Eastern Ukraine inform concerns that Russia may also flood RS with money, arms, and military advisors via Serbia.
Segments of the population that support Putin also strongly oppose the idea of BiH’s NATO ascension. Many Bosnian Serbs have been sporting the Z symbol, and the Night Wolves, a pro-Russian motorcycle gang, has heldIn March, Russia’s ambassador to Sarajevo, Igor Kalabukhov, threatened BiH with the ‘Ukraine treatment’ when addressing the prospects for the country entering NATO. “If [BiH] chooses to be a member of anything, that is its internal business.
RS becoming a de facto pro-Russian breakaway republic in the Western Balkans would put that “independent” country on the borders of two NATO members: Croatia and Montenegro. From Moscow’s perspective, this would enable Russia to play tit-for-tit with NATO as the US and other Western power advocate bringing more countries on Russia’s borders into the Alliance.BiH joining NATO would deprive Moscow of the means to assert influence in the Western Balkans via RS.
Nonetheless, a consequence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been growing support in Sarajevo and other parts of BiH for entering NATO, however unrealistic. Yet BiH remains a NATO partner and the Alliance could enlarge its presence in the country which would be legitimate under the 1995 peace agreement.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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