Did the 'soft landing' occur six months ago, at least in market terms?
We have two ears, two eyes and one mouth, which according to the old aphorism means we should listen and look approximately twice as much as we speak. Investors heeding this advice by resisting the impulse to tell the market what it ought to be doing and instead listening to it will likely find an upbeat – if hard-to-trust – message.
This turn in attitudes is surely understandable given the still-vigilant Fed, slippage in earnings forecasts and pockets of deep weakness in housing and manufacturing. But it's also reassuring as evidence that complacency has not overtaken caution. The fixation on Treasury yields as a determinant of what stocks "should" do makes some sense but is also probably overdone. True, the ramp in the 10-year from 3.4% on Feb.
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