A recession is unlikely to hit the US economy in the next 12 months after Friday's hot jobs report
"The US labor market remains strong," DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said, and that strength pushes off the likelihood of a recession thatColas converted May's solid job growth into a percentage of the total US workforce to gauge what prior bouts of job strength said about a future recession, and the data is encouraging for stock market bulls who'd rather not see a recession happen anytime soon.
"History does support the idea that May's job growth pushed back the start of a US recession by at least six to 12 months. In no case since 1980 has the US economy slipped into a recession any sooner than that after a jobs report similar to what we got on Friday," Colas said.Wall Street's fear gauge fell
to its lowest level since February 2020, right before the COVID-19 pandemic turned the economy and stock market upside down. "As much as economic and market conditions certainly do not seem back to pre-pandemic normal, the VIX is signaling that they are closer than they may seem," Colas said.
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