An economic slowdown is a virtual certainty this year, but it won’t dampen demand for new vehicles, says Eric Lascelles, chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management Inc.
“We are predicting a slower economy,” Lascelles said during the Automotive News Canada Congress Feb. 16 in Toronto. “It feels to me like there should be a lot of pent-up demand, and [inventory shortages] take years to resolve. But my assumption is that we could see a pretty decent jump in sales, which is very uncharacteristic in a possible recession year.”
Lascelles predicted a five-to-six-per-cent increase in new-vehicle sales this year. In 2022, sales totaled 1.5 million down from 1.66 million in the previous year. Despite higher interest rates, “the economy is still pretty darn hot,” he said, citing Statistics Canada figures showing the addition of 153,000 jobs in January.
The Bank of Canada’s “overnight rate might be done at 4.5 per cent, said Lascelles, who also predicted that inflation could fall to three per cent by the end of the year. Canada’s inflation rate stood at 5.9 per cent last month, according to StatsCan.“Supply chains are a lot better,” he said. “They’re not quite normal, but the era of massive disruptions and stop and start and those sorts of things seem to be largely passed.
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