Barron's on MarketWatch: PPP only delayed the small-business day of reckoning
Before too many Paycheck Protection Program recipients congratulate themselves for qualifying and receiving loans, and as a result retaining employees who they might otherwise have had to lay off, keep in mind what follows. PPP loans are designed to cover just eight weeks of payroll costs. The Cares Act and subsequent legislation allowed applications for funds beginning in early April.
Absent a fourth congressional package designed to cover an additional eight weeks of payroll costs for previous recipients, there will be another surge in unemployment claims this summer. This surge could bring the current 14.7% unemployment rate up to 25%, a rate not seen since the Great Depression. In addition to the incredible level of personal suffering it brings, that level of unemployment also results in severe declines in consumer spending, which will further damage business recovery.
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