President Trump is now an underdog to win a second term, and Republicans’ Senate majority is in serious danger of being swept out with him, according to the latest edition of POLITICO’s Election Forecast
A series of crises over the past three months has seen the political environment deteriorate markedly for Trump and his party. The percentage of voters who think the country is headed in the wrong direction is hitting new highs — a record 75 percent in the latestMeanwhile, Joe Biden’s lead over Trump is swelling to roughly 10 points nationally — and for the first time, our forecast classifies Biden as the clear favorite in the race.
vulnerable seats in states like Colorado, Maine and North Carolina — they’re also retrenching in places like Iowa and Montana. Nevada and New Hampshire were states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 — and with Biden posting larger leads against Trump, they have moved further from the president’s grasp. Trump’s advertising spend also includes small buys in Minnesota and New Mexico, two states Clinton carried. Minnesota remains classified as Lean Democratic; it’s not difficult to imagine Trump winning it if his national standing improves. New Mexico is rated as Likely Democratic.Republicans entered the 2020 Senate election cycle with greater exposure — including special elections, they control 23 of the 35 seats on the ballot this fall — but with some significant advantages.
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