Philip Cross: Canada's worst decade for real economic growth since the 1930s

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Philip Cross: Canada's worst decade for real economic growth since the 1930s
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Causes of Canada\u0027s slumping economic growth are domestic, not external. Read more.

There is growing recognition that we need to address our faltering rate of economic growth. Business leaders have been ahead of the curve on this issue. In early 2019, The Business Council of Canada launched its Task Force on Canada’s Economic Future, which focused on six policy areas where action is needed to enhance Canada’s economic prospects.

The most obvious sectoral sources of our slow growth are in business investment and exports. Since the fourth quarter of 2014, business investment in this country has fallen 17.6 per cent in volume even as it has risen 23.5 per cent in the U.S. Meanwhile, since peaking in the third quarter of 2015, the volume of Canada’s merchandise exports has fallen 0.4 per cent, while in the U.S. it has risen 14.

Together, exports of goods and business investment in plant and equipment account for fully 37 per cent of our economy. When over one-third of an economy contracts over an eight-year period, overall economic growth is bound to be hit hard. But that’s especially true for investment and exports, which contain Canada’s most productive and innovative technologies: they have to, they face the most pressure to compete and innovate.

Slumping business investment in Canada is a particular concern. There is growing understanding that Canada has wasted a decade of low interest rates on government debt and housing and not enough in business investment. Low levels of investment since 2014 resulted in an outrightin investment per worker, from $16,000 in 2014 to $11,900 in 2021. The long-run implications of falling capital-to-worker ratios are worrisome.

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