Paul Krugman: 'It may be hard for normal human beings... to appreciate the awesomeness, the historic nature of last Friday’s employment report. But the speed and extent of America’s recovery from the pandemic shock have been incredible.'
A balloon in the air at a parade in New York, Aug. 21, 2021.Americans, they said, just don’t want to work. Socialism has made them lazy. They’d rather play video games. They don’t have the skills required by a 21st-century economy. High unemployment is “structural” and can’t be solved with monetary and fiscal stimulus.
Remember all that talk about Americans dropping out of the labor force? At this point the employed percentage of adults is at or above early 2020 levels for every age group except those 70 or older. The overall unemployment rate is only 3.5%; we haven’t had that spirit here since 1969. Black unemployment is at a record low. There’s good news everywhere you look.
The big question now is whether the good news on jobs is somehow a mirage, based on an unsustainably hot labor market that will have to cool off drastically to contain inflation. But maybe the important point is that almost every measure of inflationary pressure I’m aware of has improved substantially over the past year, withincrease in the unemployment rate. And there’s no hint at all of the much-feared self-reinforcing inflationary spiral, in which rising expectations of future inflation feed into current inflation. In fact, most measures of expected inflation have declined over the past year.
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