The Magnus Carlsen–Hans Niemann cheating scandal points to abuses and suspicion at the highest levels.
The core issue is that FIDE’s system for handling cheating allegations has as its North Star the idea that a false positive—a case where an innocent player is wrongly accused—should be avoided at all costs because the potential damage to a player’s reputation is severe. FIDE, using Regan’s model, requires certainty of the upper bounds of 99 percent to find a player guilty.
All this has created a problem: an anti-cheat detection system that may be rife with false negatives and unreported cases. “Personally, I take [the finding from Regan’s model] with a grain of salt,” Canadian grandmaster Eric Hansen. “ I think most of the high-level cheating or cheating that could involve high-level players would bypass his model, because his model has to be conservative, understandably.”also said he would take Regan’s analysis with a large grain of salt.
Plus, online chess sites have a higher volume of games played weekly than over-the-board chess games have in all of recorded history. The resulting data from online games is vast and varied enough to validate inferences that Regan told me he would stop short of making in over-the-board slow chess. For example, the Chess.com model determines the playing tendencies of a particular player, which can be used as a baseline for making a determination about deviations in the quality or style of play.
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