A 1987 treaty to ban ozone-destroying gases helped delay the first ice-free Arctic summer, which is now projected to happen by 2037 at the earliest
at the University of Exeter in the UK and his colleagues. He and his team used climate and ice models to project Arctic sea ice extent with and without the Montreal Protocol, accounting for lowered CFC emissions, and the resulting rebound of the ozone layer. They also considered the effects of the gases used to replace CFCs.
The analysis showed that without the Montreal Protocol, the first Arctic summer without ice would have occurred at some point between 2030 and 2038, depending on the model. With the treaty in place, they find the first summer without ice can be expected between 2037 and 2054, assuming moderate to high future greenhouse gas emissions.Get a dose of climate optimism delivered straight to your inbox every month.
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