Could Alex Ovechkin catch Wayne Gretzky’s 894 career goals? If he can maintain his current pace, Ovi would only be 66 goals behind Gretzky entering 2023-24. ✍️ Weesesports & domluszczyszyn
Era plays a big role when it comes to how a player’s career takes shape. Get stuck in the dead puck era, and goals are hard to come by. Play in the high-flying 1980s, and lighting the lamp is a little bit easier.Neither Ovechkin nor Howe had it easy. Over Ovechkin’s career, the average goals per game was 5.78. For Howe, it was a shade lower at 5.7. Scoring goals was a much bigger challenge for both players than it was for some of the stars that made their hay in the ’80s where there were 7.
For Ovechkin, the recent league-wide goal explosion has certainly helped as he builds his case as the greatest scorer ever. Over the past six seasons, the average goal rate has risen to 6.08 goals per game, compared to 5.62 during the prime of his career., putting all players on the same plane as best they can. There, it’s plain to see how each player has been affected by their scoring environment. Adjusted for era, Howe’s goal total should be closer to 925.
And as for Ovechkin, he should already be considered the greatest scorer of all time with 936 era-adjusted goals — and counting. The most ever. —Ovechkin entered the 2022-23 season 114 goals behind Gretzky. With Ovechkin’s career goals per game at 0.612 entering the season, that means it will take approximately 186 games to reach 114 more goals, tying Gretzky at the top. That’s roughly a little over two seasons, assuming the goals-per-game rate holds.Health will be a major factor for Ovechkin.
The first time I wrote about Ovechkin’s quest for the goal scoring crown was at the end of the 2018-19 season.
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