Russia is invading Ukraine. Here's why Putin pulled the trigger.
, but there are a number of non-mutually exclusive factors that likely fueled this action. Much of it has to do with long-held concerns that Russia has about security in the region and its fear of Ukraine becoming increasingly independent from its influence. Then there’s the element of timing: It appears Putin calculated that he had the strategic upper hand and decided this was a particularly good time to strike to advance his interests.
Since the beginning of NATO expansion in the mid-'90s, when Russia had a very different government under Boris Yeltsin, the Russian government, and Russian commentators and officials, opposed NATO enlargement but also warned that if this went as far as taking in Georgia and Ukraine, then there would be confrontation and strong likelihood of war. They said that explicitly over and over again. So this is not about Putin.
Putin was a KGB officer in East Germany when the Soviet Union collapsed. That experience has shaped his perception of the threats that emerge from street movements, protests and anti-authoritarian rhetoric,When Putin considers Ukraine — which has seen two major pro-democracy uprisings, the last of which led to the ouster of the pro-Russian president of Ukraine in 2014 — he sees a country with which Russia has rich historical and cultural ties moving irreversibly out of its sphere of influence.
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