Opinion | Pakistan's Devastation Is Just a Preview of the Future—and the Biggest Climate Polluters Must Pay Up

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Opinion | Pakistan's Devastation Is Just a Preview of the Future—and the Biggest Climate Polluters Must Pay Up
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'Rich countries should bear their fair share of the attributable costs of climate adaptation, emergency response, and recovery in countries that played little to no role in causing today’s calamities.'

Around the world, 2022 has been a year of climate catastrophes, including droughts, floods, mega-fires, typhoons, and more. Among the hardest-hit countries is Pakistan. With torrential monsoon rainfall almost 190% above its 30-year average, extraordinary flooding has submerged one-third of the country and killed 1,400 people so far.

Scientists will likely come up with careful estimates of attribution for Pakistan’s floods in the months ahead . Suppose, hypothetically, that half of Pakistan’s losses are ultimately attributed to long-term climate change, and the other half to random year-to-year variation and local land-use practices. That would mean that around $15 billion of the estimated losses resulted from climate change.

The world’s rich countries are like that polluting factory. They have deprived Pakistan of the long-term climatic conditions on which it has built its economy, homes, farms, and infrastructure. If there was a global climate court, Pakistan’s government would have a strong case against the US and other high-income countries for failing to limit climate-changing greenhouse-gas emissions .

Between 1850 and 2020, the burning of fossil fuels resulted in cumulative emissions of 1.69 trillion tons of CO2. Of that total, the US accounts for roughly 24.6%—417 billion tons—which is much greater than its share of the 2021 world population: roughly 4.2%. Similarly, high-income countries combined account for around 58.7% of cumulative CO2 emissions, but only 15% of today’s world population.

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