Opinion: New polls show Trump sinking under the seismic events of the moment
And Biden’s national lead appears to be pretty durable. A
underscores the point: It finds that Biden’s lead over Trump has only been marginally bigger than Hillary Clinton’s was throughout this period in 2016. But, crucially, Biden’s has been a lot more stable.Throughout the spring months of 2016, Clinton’s lead lurched all over the place, from a high point of 10 points to a low of 2.4 points. By contrast, Biden’s lead has held steady, and in the last month has slowly edged up.
This consistency may reflect the fact that Donald Trump is now running as an incumbent with a proven track record. When an incumbent like Trump is running for reelection, the election is mainly a referendum on the incumbent’s performance.horribly . Some pundits got temporarily lulled into believing that both crises would help Trump, but the bottom line is he’s in charge, and for now, anyway, he’s being held accountable for the epic disasters unfolding on his watch.
Trump is constantly presumed to be defying the normal rules of politics. But, while anything can happen in the next five months, and while Trump surely could still win, maybe the fundamentals are kicking in, after all.
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