The wide-open Kentucky Derby suddenly looks like an incredible race to bet.
CLOSE What I'm Hearing: Dan Wolken on why Kentucky Derby favorite Omaha Beach was forced to drop out of the race and which horses now have the best odds. USA TODAY Sports
“Omaha Beach was definitely the horse to beat,” said Bob Baffert, who has won it five times. “I don’t think there’s a heavy duty favorite now. They’re all so close.” Maximum Security, who is 4-for-4 in his career, was listed as an 8-to-1 fourth choice when the new morning line came out Wednesday night but has been largely overlooked in the week-long build-up to the Derby. That’s not a surprise.
But when he got his shot, Maximum Security delivered. Though he was obviously facing inferior competition, he won three sprint races by a combined 34 1/2 lengths. Then in the Florida Derby, jockey Luis Saez sent him to the lead, controlled the pace with a soft 48.98-second opening half-mile and kicked away from the field entering the far turn to cruise home.
The Beyer figure is just one of many handicapping tools out there, but has been a gold standard for measuring how fast horses have run in the past. And Maximum Security, who drew post No. 7 and should be on or near the early lead, appears to be the fastest horse in the race.Tacitus is regally bred, trained by a master in Bill Mott and closed stoutly to win both the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial. His running style may lend itself to traffic trouble, but he’s certainly good enough.
Even some big-priced longshots in here like Tax and War of Will have shown enough in their past performances to suggest that they belong with this field — and could absolutely win the race if they improve just a fraction.
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