OPINION: Breed is poised for a reelection campaign that looks a lot more like Gavin Newsom’s in 2007 or Ed Lee’s in 2015 than Frank Jordan’s in 1995. If that changes, it will happen this year in one or two electoral setbacks.
Mayor London Breed promised to crack down on criminality in the Tenderloin at a news conference on Dec. 17, 2021. She made good on that promise a few weeks later, declaring a state of emergency in the neighborhood for 2022. The Feb. 15 recall of three school board members, which Breed supported, passed overwhelmingly, giving her three appointments to the board and an opportunity to further consolidate her power.
On the other hand, much could change between now and June. The San Francisco County Democratic Committee Party recently voted overwhelmingly against the recall. This does not mean it will fail, but shows the city’s political leadership does not support it. Also, Boudin will have enough of a war chest to run a real campaign. Supporters of the school board recall were able to outspend its opponents by a margin of about 28-1. That will not be the case in the DA recall.
If Boudin survives the recall and one or more of Breed’s candidates lose, Breed will become more vulnerable in 2022. Another reason is that although there are several other citywide elected officials, none enjoy the visibility of the mayor. Most San Franciscans know who the mayor is, but how many know the name of the city attorney – who is a Breed appointee? Or how many know the name of the assessor-recorder, even though voters just renewed his term? Not many.