In theory, democracy requires that everyone knows and agrees on the rules of the game. But, in 2024, no one knows which unwritten rules will actually apply.
with the party’s voters, and it’s hard for other candidates to compete with the name recognition of a former president. Lingering rage around the 2020 election also matters, but in a more complicated way, entrenching some supporters while leaving others wondering if there might be a lower-risk candidate with less baggage.
uniting the portions of the party opposed to Trump behind one candidate is proving highly challenging for him But if Trump remains the front-runner, his ongoing legal troubles threaten to upend the contest further. At least so far, the Manhattan indictment of Trump has brought some advantages to his campaign, including aand an increase in his polling numbers. But further indictments in other cases, or even a conviction, could turn the tide against him. This might mean that long-shot candidates wait in the wings longer than they would normally, just in case things go even further off the rails.
Another source of mystery has to do with timing. Some of the most important unwritten rules of the nominating process come into play after the voting has begun. It’s assumed that the losers will drop out and endorse the winners after a few lackluster primaries, or when it becomes mathematically impossible to win the nomination.
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