.niknanos: Data Dive with Nik Nanos: Have the Liberals passed their expiration date?
Second, the leadership advantage held by most incumbent governments is weakening. Usually, the prime minister of the day enjoys about a five-point baked-in advantage just by occupying the PM’s chair. Not so much for Mr. Trudeau. Mr. Poilievre is very competitive when it comes to who voters would prefer as prime minister – in fact, he’s the first challenger since 2015 to be competitive outside of an election cycle. Right now, 29 per cent of voters say Mr.
The most striking trend line is for accessible voters – those individuals who, regardless of how they vote, would consider voting for another party. The Liberals usually have a noticeable advantage over the Conservatives on accessible voters. Over the decades they have been the party of the “big tent” – occupying the centre of the political spectrum and playing off the NDP and the Conservatives. As a result, they have benefited from having the largest group of potential voters.
Will things get better for the Liberals? Last month saw both a budget announcement and a visit by U.S. President Joe Biden. Foreign visits are platforms for prime ministers to build political stature. Budgets are infomercials for governments to pro-actively convey priorities. These events in short succession are opportunities for the Liberals to change the trend line which is currently moving against them.
If the Liberals cannot reverse the trend, it may very well be that they are dealing with a more serious challenge – that they are hitting their best before date.
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