Our efforts have focused on reducing Canadians’ vulnerability, under the premise that we are protected from climate change’s worst effects and that we had time to address the problem. We were wrong
Elliott Cappell is PwC Canada’s national climate change leader, and Toronto’s former chief resilience officer. He is a member of the implementation committee of the Canadian Sustainability Standards Board.
To understand where we got it wrong, it is important to first understand that the way we experience climate-related disasters such asis a function of two variables. The first is exposure, which is the extent of the likelihood or severity of a hazard in a given place. The second is vulnerability: the extent to which we can withstand those hazards.
Investors, climate experts and politicians are loath to engage with the idea that exposure can overwhelm vulnerability, because it leaves us only with second-best solutions, like managed retreat from the riskiest areas. This context may also require us to rethink national infrastructure such as rail, roads, or power transmission lines, which are notoriously expensive to move.
The third pillar of our approach was that we had more time. The most commonly used models for climate scenario planning from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show exposure trending sharply upward around 2050 or 2060. However, a growing body of research is showing that our models have underestimated climate risk. Our lived experience suggests the same.Governments have always had a central role to play on climate adaptation.
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