Health experts should be driving the timeline while corporate America and government work together to get the economy through this pandemic.
Business leaders would do well to understand the economic and reputational risks that premature reopening could entail.
While we see signs of hope that the social distancing measures are working, business leaders will do well to remember that the projections of those models are a lagging indicator. As epidemiologists and experts, notably Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci in the United States, repeatedly point out, the time from infection to severe symptoms means that the current data reflects the pandemic of a fortnight ago.
During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, short-term liquidity evaporated among banks and other financial institutions. As the banking system struggled, the value of pledged collateral fell and led to capital calls and indeed institutional failure. A historical root cause analysis uncovered a number of systemic faults along with egregious amounts of leverage. More mysterious was why the crisis ended when it did. Understanding this part of the history is crucial to today's decision-makers.
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