One out of every 179 Americans will eventually be murdered if crime rate continues, study finds

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One out of every 179 Americans will eventually be murdered if crime rate continues, study finds
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A study conducted by nonprofit research institute Just Facts found 24,493 people were murdered in 2021 based on death certificates. FBI data reported only estimates.

The Department of Justice, under which the FBI operates, released a study in 2014 highlighting that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Vital Statistics System, which relies on birth and death certificate data, provides"more accurate homicide trends at the national level than" the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports due to a multitude of reasons.

The 2014 study notes that reporting death certificates at a national level is"mandatory," as opposed to the FBI’s system to which police departments voluntarily submit data. The death certificate data also include homicides that"occur in federal jurisdictions," and homicides caused by the deliberate"crashing of a motor vehicle, but this category generally accounts for less than 100 deaths per year," Just Facts notes of the 2014 DOJ report.

"For decades, the FBI has undercounted murders, while death certificates have overcounted them. Starting with data from death certificates and removing justifiable homicides provides a more reliable estimate of murders," Just Facts' study concludes. Just Facts was then able to"provide a sense of scale for this [2021] bloodshed" and found that one out of every 179 Americans will eventually be murdered.

The number is quite a shock, which both Agresti and the study note, but Just Facts said it's ironclad. "Even in previous years, when murders were much less common, the lifetime likelihood of murder was so shocking to some people that they sent repeated emails to Just Facts insisting it was wrong.

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